Libs concerned about drop in polls, afraid of 'Conservative attack machine'
Behind the scenes, the Liberals are concerned about their slide in public opinion which they say is due to Tory ads, Liberal election talk, and a weak communications strategy, and they're afraid of saying what they would do in government because of the "Conservative attack machine."
"I don't think we've scored on the communications front," said Liberal MP Judy Sgro (York West, Ont.).
But Ms. Sgro, who was recently added to the Grits' so-called 'Kitchen Cabinet,' which meets every morning to advise Leader Michael Ignatieff (Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Ont.) on strategy, said being in opposition is tough, particularly when you're up against the "Conservative attack machine." And although Mr. Ignatieff's declaration that he would no longer keep the Conservatives in power, shifting the burden to the other opposition parties, has had a negative impact on the party's poll numbers, but it was a necessary move, said Ms. Sgro.
"We've been trying to keep Canada moving, to make things work for a long time and clearly it's not working. It's certainly not working for us. So it was important for us to re-establish our role as the official opposition," she said.
For months the Liberals have been assailed in the media, and by the Tories, for not putting forth any substantial public policy proposals.
But despite this, the party is still spooked by what happened under former leader Stéphane Dion (Saint-Laurent-Cartierville, Que.) who released the main plank of his platform, the "Green Shift," several months before the last election. It became the target of an onslaught of Conservative attack ads that portrayed it as a "tax on everything," and the party went down to one of its worst electoral defeats ever.
"Anything we put out there will be the subject of their attack ads," said Ms. Sgro.
But Liberal MP Bonnie Crombie (Mississauga-Streetsville, Ont.) said they need to put out more policy ideas before the election campaign, and a Liberal "thinkers conference" to be held early next year will help the party to define itself. Ms. Crombie also said there could be changes to the campaign platform, which was completed last summer.
"We thought that an election would be imminent so the platform had been designed, but platforms evolve as issues rise and fall," she said.
And although it's important to save some policy for the campaign arsenal, the party and the leader could still do a stronger job of articulating a national vision, said one Liberal source who did not want to be identified.
"In marketing terms, you have to look at product differentiation between the Liberals and the Conservatives," the source said.
The veteran Liberal cited the example of the press conference held last week by Liberal MPs on the Hill attacking the government for its alleged indifference to the plight of Suaad Mohamud, a Toronto woman left stranded in Kenya, as a positive example of the kind of communications the party needs to do more of.
"That's a very powerful and resonant message, because clearly the Conservatives have decided to basically develop a two-tier system, and that's the kind of thing that the Liberals need to be more aggressive on."
But how voters see the leader plays a big part in party support, and Mr. Ignatieff needs to do more to make himself and what he stands for known to Canadians, the source said.
"People need to know what Michael Ignatieff stands for, and that's not just how press releases are issued in the office, but the core fundamentals of his belief system."
The source said the political quicksand that Mr. Ignatieff has stumbled into lately, including the recent kerfuffle caused by the resignation of former Quebec lieutenant Denis Coderre (Bourassa, Que.), is a symptom of an inexperienced leader with an inner circle that's too small.
"I worked with Stéphane Dion and I knew he wasn't a leader from the beginning. He was a smart guy, very devoted, but didn't listen to people and was his own worst enemy. I don't think that's Ignatieff's problem. He is listening, but he's listening to too few people who have a view that's somewhat narrow, he needs to broaden it out."
Meanwhile, according to an Ekos poll that came out last week, the minority governing Tories were leading the pack with a comfortable margin of 14 points over the Ignatieff Liberals, and were in majority government territory. According to this poll, Tories had the support of 39.7 per cent of Canadians followed by the Liberals with 25.7 support, NDP at 15.2 and Greens and the Bloc tied at 9.7 per cent.
The poll also showed that the Tories were ahead of the Liberals in all regions of the country, and with the exception of voters who are in the age group of 25 years or less, all voter demographic groups preferred the Harper Tories over the Ignatieff Liberals.
Ekos polled 3,333 Canadians between Sept. 30 and Oct. 6 and the margin of error was plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Liberal Whip Rodger Cuzner (Cape Breton-Canso, N.S.) told The Hill Times that he was not surprised by the poll numbers. When his party withdrew its support from the Conservatives, prior to the start of the session, they knew they would lose some political capital. And the slew of funding announcements the government made over the summer in all regions across the country has helped bolster Tory support, he said.
"We fully anticipated that the numbers were going to shift, maybe not as much as what they did, but we know that we're positioned now for the next while to provide good opposition for the people," Mr. Cuzner said.
Mr. Cuzner said his party is going to use the break week to take a close look at their current strategy and will come up with some adjustments when the House returns next week.
"Any time that there's a chance to reflect, and certainly this week has been an opportunity for us to reflect on where we are as a party, hopefully we'll be able to make those assessments and make those changes and we'll come back as a strong, and better, and more effective opposition," Mr. Cuzner said.
Mr. Cuzner denied the Liberals are worried because of the decline in the national public opinion polls.
"In this business, you learn not to get too high on the highs or too low on the lows," he said. "We understand fully, back between 1990 and 1993, Mr. Chrétien had very rough waters that he was able to navigate. We've got veteran members of our caucus that have been through government, and through opposition, so we rely on them. In their opinion, it's not too bad."
Liberal strategist Warren Kinsella, a campaign veteran who has been volunteering in Mr. Ignatieff's team, told The Hill Times last week that he's not worried about the polls, and an election campaign will be his party's opportunity to turn the ship around.
"What turns things around? The campaign. Campaigns matter. When the writ drops, we will get equivalency in media coverage. And Canadians will see we have a smart, impressive, honest leader. And they'll see we have the best team—and we'll be the only serious party with a serious platform. Until then, the phony war will continue, and no one south of the Queensway will pay any attention to the phoniness."
A top Liberal told The Hill Times that he's concerned that despite the fall in the polls, Mr. Ignatieff's top aides seem to be in denial and don't think any adjustments in the leader's inner circle, or strategy, need to be made.
"The office is relatively certain that there's no problem there. They're doing what really needs to be done, and the people who think otherwise are living in a state of ignorance. They just don't understand.... Give it a few days and we'll be back on track," said the Liberal.
Pollster Frank Graves said the Liberals must put out their policies and explain to Canadians why they should vote for them.
"They obviously have to rethink what they're doing and there's no quick rebound available for them. They're not going to bounce back, they're going to have to crawl back, and that will be by trying to tell Canadians what is it that they specifically have in mind for the country and for individual families," he said.
The Hill Times
http://hilltimes.com/page/printpage/libs_concerned_drop_polls-10-12-2009