Census uproar impacts 'broader narrative' of PM's relationship with public service Some say the issue will remind voters of a string of incidents in which the government has interfered with the federal public service. By TIM NAUMETZ Published July 26, 2010    30 Comments

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The uproar over Prime Minister Stephen Harper's political interference in the 2011 mandatory census has "legs" and a deeper impact than the government expected that could influence an election if one is held this fall, pollsters and opposition MPs say.

They tell The Hill Times the order that Statistics Canada replace the mandatory long form of the national census with a voluntary and more costly questionnaire will remind voters of a string of incidents in which his government interfered with the public service—in this case leading to the resignation of the country's chief statistician—since Prime Minister Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) first won power four years ago.

"I wouldn't call it a crisis, but the Conservatives have to watch because it's potentially part of a broader narrative on, what I'll say, them being involved in operational decisions," pollster Nik Nanos said. "I don't think the issue itself is about winner or about loser, I don't think there are very many Canadians who will change their vote on whether there is a long-form census or not that they have a chance, like, two times in their lifetime to fill out. To think that this issue onto itself is going to have a significant impact is just not on."

Mr. Nanos, one of 24 prominent business, research, labour and social service experts who signed a letter opposing the government move, added: "However, as part of a broader narrative of political involvement in operational decisions and as part of a broader narrative on the relationship between the Harper government and Canada's civil service, it does have legs."

A string of columnists, MPs and critics have argued Prime Minister Harper opted to junk the mandatory aspect of the in-depth census form, mandatory by law, to pander to right-wing elements of the Conservative voter base in advance of a possible federal election this fall.

Although the shorter six-page version of the form is also mandatory, Industry Minister Tony Clement (Parry Sound-Muskoka, Ont.), Transport Minister John Baird (Ottawa West-Nepean, Ont.) and party commentators have also emphasized the detailed nature of the 32-page long questionnaire, usually ridiculing its request for a summation of the number of bedrooms in a household. Although some Conservatives have also said the sexual orientation of citizens is not the government's business, a census question inquiring about same-sex common law or married household relations is contained in the short census form, not the long one.

If Prime Minister Harper insisted on the move in anticipation of an election, it would conform with a Conservative tactic prior to the 2008 October election, when the government just as suddenly announced plans to get tough on youth crime and leaked news it intended to slash what it called wasteful spending on arts and culture. Though the positioning damaged the party in Quebec, as well as Toronto and Vancouver, it benefited Conservative candidates in suburban and semi-rural Ontario areas.

The 2008 tactic on arts and crime, along with other positions, inspired hardcore party supporters to troop to the polls, a boon to the Conservatives as overall voter turnout plunged. Conservative turnout dropped only marginally compared to the Liberals and, with an increase from the 2006 election of only one per cent of all votes cast, the party increased its House of Commons seats by 12 per cent, taking close-margin ridings from the Liberal party.

The downside this time, which Nanos said is a surprise to Prime Minister Harper and his backroom election planners, is the depth of outrage from unexpected quarters, and the profound offense taken by the community of government and private-sector researchers whose work, including targeting of funding for all government services, down to routing mass transit or school planning, depends on the in-depth census that comes only every 10 years.

Even though a fraction of low-income households, citizens with a low education level, First Nations communities, cautious new immigrants and, oddly, high-income households refuse to fill out the long form despite the possibility of legal action, the results are vital for a comprehensive account of Canadian society, said Ivan Fellegi, who retired as the head of Statistics Canada in 2008.

"It's like stirring a soup very well and then tasting a spoonful and you expect that a spoonful will properly reflect the level of saltiness or sweetness or whatever of the soup," Mr. Fellegi told The Hill Times. "But to make it voluntary, it's like not stirring the soup before you taste a spoonful of it."

Neils Veldhuis, an analyst with the conservative think tank the Fraser Institute who says he spent last week defending the government measure on at least 30 radio and television interviews across Canada, claimed there is "almost no caller, once they understand what's on the long-form census, there is almost no caller that would agree that we need to force Canadians to fill out this sort of information."

Mr. Veldhuis said the opposition, which included Official Languages Commissioner Graham Fraser, is made up of "academics, these are think-tank people, these are people in business that use the data, they are social service groups."

"These are vested interest groups that currently have cheaper data than they should have because the government is able to force Canadians to disclose the date," Mr. Veldhuis told The Hill Times. "This is not a question of whether the data is going to be available or will not be available, it's primarily a question of what it's going to cost to get the data."

Mr. Clement has said it will cost taxpayers $35-million to replace the mandatory 32-page questionnaire with a voluntary form going to 30 per cent of households instead of the 20 per cent now reached with the mandatory version. But critics say that is likely a significant underestimation of the cost because of the growing population since the 2001 census, when Statistics Canada sent the long form to 2.5 million households. Mr. Clement said 168,000 households refused to fill out the long form that year, and 60 were "referred for prosecution."

Chief statistician Munir Sheikh's sudden and dramatic resignation last Wednesday night after Mr. Clement's claim a voluntary form can provide the same kind of reliable information that comes from a mandatory census prompted Liberal MP Ralph Goodale (Wascana, Sask.) to note Mr. Sheikh is now part of a line of top public servants who have one way or another fallen victim to government interference with public service decisions or policies. Some were shifted out of senior posts, others were criticized publicly and others, such as former Military Police Complaints Commission chair Peter Tinsley, simply saw their terms expire with no renewal.

"It represents an ongoing attack on the public service," said Mr. Goodale. "Nobody can remember that the head of statistics felt so aggrieved before that he had to resign. When was the last time a deputy minister, a person of that status in the public service, felt that he had to walk away?"

"On this one, they seem to be digging in their heels," said Mr. Goodale. "They think that there is a part of their natural right-wing constituency that is pretty libertarian and would say statistics gathering is a manifestation of big government, intrusive government. It's one of those things where they are calculating their niche markets."

Ekos pollster Frank Graves says the census takeover by Prime Minister Harper represents a wider rejection of science and independent research reflected by the Conservatives, including cuts to targeted interest groups and the grip Mr. Harper's office has on the bureaucracy at large.

"It's a fundamental dispute about the role of knowledge in a secular world versus the role of belief and intuition," says Mr. Graves. "Harper seems to have a personal, real disdain for research and policy research. I believe this emanates from him, that's what I've heard. In fact, I've heard he wanted to ban the entire census."

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