Liberals not ready to defeat Tories in spring Prime Minister Stephen Harper's decision to shut down Parliament has caused him some damage, but there's still no indication that voters are looking to the Liberal leader. By HARRIS MACLEOD Published February 8, 2010    4 Comments

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Since closing the popularity gap with Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Tories three weeks ago the federal Liberals are stalled in the polls, which party insiders say is dissuading anyone in caucus from gunning for a spring election.

"Canadians don't feel comfortable with us yet," one Liberal MP, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told The Hill Times last week.

The MP said that while Prime Minister Harper's (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) decision to prorogue Parliament has caused some of the support for his government to shake loose, there's still no indication that voters are looking to Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff (Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Ont.) to replace him. And if the Vancouver Winter Olympics, which will take up most of the month of February, are a success then the Tories could rebound in public opinion polls and head into the spring Parliamentary session with the wind in their sails.

An Ekos poll released last week had the two main parties in a virtual tie, with 31.9 per cent support for the Liberals, and 31 per cent for the Conservatives. It's a marked improvement from the 15-point lead the Tories had over the Grits in the fall, but neither party's support has moved much since the prorogation controversy leveled the playing field last month.

Parliament will return on March 3 and the first order of business will be the Throne Speech, followed by a landmark budget in which the government will outline the second phase of its two-year stimulus package. Prime Minister Harper said last week he wants Parliamentarians to give up their planned break-weeks in March and April to make up for lost time from the prorogation period.

The Liberals and the Bloc Québécois both said last week they would support Mr. Harper's proposal, which requires the unanimous consent of the House, while NDP Whip Yvon Godin (Acadie-Bathurst, N.B.) told The Hill Times that his party hasn't decided whether they will consent to sacrificing the break weeks. Mr. Godin said the NDP's position is that Parliament should be brought back immediately.

"Instead of being in British Columbia in the legislature making a speech [Mr. Harper] should be in Parliament making a speech," he said, in reference to the Prime Minister's plan to address the B.C. legislature.

"In principle we don't have any problems augmenting the number of weeks, but we must remember that it's the Conservatives fault that we lost four weeks of sessions," said Bloc House Leader Pierre Paquette (Joliette, Que.).

None of the opposition parties have ruled out voting against the budget, even if it means triggering a spring election. Although the Liberals have a policy conference in Montreal March 26 to 28, which is a major part of their strategy to present themselves and their leader as a viable alternative to the Harper government.

Liberal Party President Alfred Apps, a member of Mr. Ignatieff's inner circle, said the policy conference does not tie the party's hands if the Liberals want to vote against the budget.

"Just because the Liberals vote against the budget, if they decide to do so and it's unclear whether they will, that doesn't meant he government is going to get defeated. I don't think it's a terrible thing for the country to see the Liberal Party seriously doing some thinking and being open and inclusive for two days in the middle of an election campaign. The platform is not being decided at the conference, it's just one of the inputs into the long-term thinking of the Liberal Party," he said.

Still, one party insider said it's unlikely the Liberals will vote against the budget, barring some poison pill like the proposal to eliminate the political parties' per-vote subsidy that triggered the coalition crisis in 2008.

"My sense is that the Tory timeline is that they've been planning all along for an election in the spring, post-Olympic bump and all that stuff," said the insider. "In the absence of a strategy do the opposite of what your enemy wants, that's always pretty safe. Don't give them an election, wait till the fall."

Right now the party is working on solidifying its policy positions, and boosting revenues from fundraising. The Liberals raised $9.6-million in 2009, which is vastly improved from 2008 when they brought in only $5.6-million. But while the Tories' fundraising haul declined from $21-million in 2008, they were still light years ahead of the other parties, bringing in $18-million last year.

When Mr. Apps became president of the party last year he pledged to match the Conservatives in fundraising by June 30, 2011, and he said the party is on track to meeting that goal.

"In one year we've cut the gap in half. If I can cut it in half again this year, so the gap instead of being under $8-million it becomes $4-million, I think it's very achievable to meet that goal in 2011," he said.

But the Liberals are not there yet, and after four years in opposition, they have learned to fear the Conservative machine, said one insider.

"I can just imagine [Liberal candidate] Ross Rebagliati in an ad about everybody smoking dope, and Liberals talking about raising the GST, they can take that stuff and they can really run some negative stuff. I think the Tories, unlike their historical counterparts won't drop during a writ, I think their election machine and the money they have will ensure that they either keep what they've got or improve. I'm not sure the Liberals are ready to fight a battle that right now."

hmacleod@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times